Posted 1/1/2024
I developed a fantasy football formula (FFF) to help determine a starting lineup each week throughout the season. I hope you find it helpful, and I'm always looking to improve it if you have any suggestions. Here are some general notes.
Below is the complete FFF formula to use for players (QB's, RB's, WR's, TE's, or K's).
As shown, the formula consists of factors A through N. Here is a breakdown of each factor:
As shown in the formula, almost each factor (everything except A) is broken down into two versions with a "bias" subscript and "int" subscript.
All values were calculated using a best fit line for data over the past five years. (I can probably go over this in detail in a future article.) Note that offensive line rankings, receiving corps rankings, and home-away inputs are set as bins or toggled values, so the max and mins are set as 1 and -1, respectively. Also, age and opportunities are zeroed out on the kicker formula, so that is why the max and mins are set as "N/A".
I like to interpolate all values to fantasy points to make a good comparison between players. So let's do an example. Russell Wilson is 35 years old. In the table above, the age band is between 19.87 and 39.97, and the points band is between 21.77 and 9.22. Age is reversed because a younger quarterback will interpolate to higher points, so as an older quarterback, Russell Wilson's points interpolated from age is fairly low at 12.32. He's not playing anymore, but by comparison, Tom Brady (age 46) has his interpolated points even lower at 5.45. (Incidentally, the bias for age on quarterbacks is 0, so at the end of the day, age is really not a factor for quarterbacks. I think Tom Brady was a big part in my analysis to rule it out.)
So for good measure, let's finish out an entire FFF example with Russell Wilson. I did a calculation of him a couple of weeks ago when he played at home versus New England. Here are all the inputs.
And with the bias factors for quarterbacks above, we get this calculation:
FFF, then, equals 15.50.
Where the formula really comes in handy is when I compared Russell Wilson to Matthew Stafford that week. Matthew Stafford was at home and playing against the New Orleans Saints. Here's how the calculation compares Russell Wilson to Matthew Stafford:
Russell Wilson: 15.50
Matthew Stafford: 13.91
And here were the actual fantasy points from that week:
Russell Wilson: 21.76
Matthew Stafford: 18.36
So it is not perfect, but in this case the calculation was successful.
Thanks for checking out my fantasy football predictive model. I hope this isn't too confusing. Again, this is my first go of it, so as I get time, I will try to refine it and improve my craft.
Updated 11/11/2024
We use cookies to analyze website traffic and optimize your website experience. By accepting our use of cookies, your data will be aggregated with all other user data.